Turkey’s Shift: Erdogan’s Third Term and the Transformation of Democracy
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a seasoned political leader with autocratic tendencies, won a third term in office by edging out Kemal Kilicdaroglu by only four percent.
The election demonstrated the electorate’s striking preference for a strong, seasoned leader over a less familiar democratic candidate. This preference demonstrates the enduring allure of charismatic authority in Turkey, particularly among religious conservatives who have remained loyal to Erdogan for over two decades, despite economic turmoil such as hyperinflation.
Well into the early hours of the morning, the post-election period was marked by spirited displays of national pride among Erdogan’s supporters, revealing a forceful nationalism that celebrates Erdogan’s imposing style of leadership. However, the opposition suffered a significant setback, indicating a potential threat to the country’s democratic plurality.
During the election campaign, Erdogan’s extensive control over national media and his populist appeal gave him a distinct advantage. Erdogan’s swift post-victory criticism of both the opposition and the LGBTQ+ community indicates potential socio-political shifts in the country. Given the lack of checks and balances in the country’s government, such actions may exacerbate social divisions and further restrict civil liberties. It is worth noting that nearly half of the voters who desired a change may be left feeling perturbed and apprehensive.
The repercussions of this election extend to the public life of this once staunchly secular republic, with projections indicating an increase in the prominence of Islamic norms and values and a possible restriction of public liberties. The nation of Turkey, which is experiencing economic difficulties, appears to be heading in the direction of greater social division. It is pertinent to note how this election may alter the Turkish national narrative and identity.
Turkey’s neighbours and NATO allies are on high alert due to Erdogan’s victory and tendency to challenge international norms. Underscoring the far-reaching effects of nationalistic tendencies within a country, the election results may impact regional dynamics and potentially disrupt the established international order.
The political landscape of Turkey has undergone a significant transformation over the past few years. A complex interplay of factors, such as the rise of majoritarian nationalist tendencies and the influence of a post-Islamist president more concerned with his legacy than the welfare of the country, has driven this transformation, which is characterised by a shift towards authoritarianism.
Majoritarian nationalist tendencies, a term used to describe a form of nationalism that is deeply rooted in the historical and cultural identity of a nation, have been on the rise in Turkey. Despite not being inherently problematic, political actors have manipulated and exploited this form of nationalism to increase their influence and quell dissent. The majoritarian nationalist narrative has been used to justify a range of authoritarian measures, from the suppression of free speech and the media, to the persecution of political opponents and minority groups.
The president’s focus on his personal legacy has manifested in several ways. One of the most notable has been his efforts to consolidate power. This has involved a systematic dismantling of the country’s democratic institutions and the implementation of a new presidential system that significantly increases the power of the president. These actions have been justified under the guise of national security and stability.
The president’s post-Islamist leanings have also played a role in the rise of authoritarianism in Turkey. His efforts to impose a more conservative, Islamist agenda on the country have led to a significant erosion of secularism, a key principle of the Turkish republic. This has involved a range of measures, from the promotion of religious education to the suppression of secular voices and institutions. The impact of these developments on Turkish electoral politics has been profound. Elections, once a cornerstone of Turkish democracy, have increasingly become a tool for the consolidation of power.
The manipulation of electoral laws, the suppression of opposition parties, and the control of the media have all served to undermine the integrity of elections and entrench the power of the ruling party.
I spent six years in Istanbul, from 2010 to 2016, teaching at a private university while enduring the immense political tensions that emerged from the Gezi Park arrests in 2013 and the emerging attacks by Islamic State towards the end of my time. It was as a result of the failed coup events of 2016 that the president increased his powers to have almost absolute authority over the state. The implications have been severe, specifically for those who would dare criticise the president, including groups and institutions targeted en masse for alleged associations with the coup events.
The growing concerns regarding majoritarian nationalism have begun to impact relations within a substantial segment of the population, which has experienced successful growth due to the opening up of the economy and a shift away from traditionally dominant sectors controlled by the secular elites of the past. Both the Kemalists and the current post-Islamist president, who has held office for two decades and is guaranteed an additional six years, have employed majoritarian nationalism as a tool. These divisions are unlikely to diminish, but it is evident that Erdogan holds significant national and international appeal among Sunni-majority nations, as well as Muslim minorities in Europe. These groups have a steadfast belief that a capable and just leader who is unwavering and resolute in the face of Western attacks will protect these values. They also share a strong affiliation with Erdogan’s ideas of concentrating religious, political, and economic power as the vanguard of Islam, particularly given his proximity to Europe.
The year 2023 marks the 100-year anniversary of the formation of the Republic. Erdogan has always had it as part of his mission to redefine Turkey in light of this moment in history. No longer a secular, almost anti-Islamic nation, but rather a strong, confident, resilient, and capable Muslim nation working through the wheels of democratic governance, still aiming to act as a model for the rest of the Muslim world, while also showing Europe that Turkey is not a million miles away and nor is it entirely alien, although scepticism and fear have plagued the European Union since Turkey joined NATO in 1952.
What happens next will be incredibly interesting to observe. The economy is mired in hyperinflation and the collapse of the lira. Foreign reserves are crumbling, while public pay has been dramatically increased, which appeases civil servants of old varieties for now, but the challenges of the economy will not disappear with short boosts during election periods. Manufacturing and industry continue to stay afloat, and with tourism always a significant component of GDP, there is some hope on the horizon. Turkey has faced considerable banking crises in the past, including in 2000–2001, which ultimately led to the emergence of the AKP soon after and Erdogan becoming Prime Minister in 2003.
As the adage goes, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.” What emerges next will be important for the Middle East and the Muslim world in general, but also for Europe, which has its own problems of inflation, a potential recession that may turn into a depression, and energy crises because of a war on the fringes of Europe that have been in play for over a year.
What happens next will be incredibly interesting to observe. The economy is mired with hyperinflation and the collapse of the lira. Foreign reserves are crumbling, while public pay has been dramatically increased, which appeases civil servants of old varieties for now, but the challenges of the economy will not disappear with short boosts during election periods. Manufacturing and industry continue to stay afloat, and with tourism always a significant component of GDP, there is some hope on the horizon. Turkey has faced considerable banking crises in the past, including in 2000 and 2002, which ultimately led to the emergence of the AKP soon after and Erdogan becoming Prime Minister in 2003.
As the adage goes, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.” What emerges next will be important for the Middle East and the Muslim world in general, but also for Europe, which has its own problems of inflation, a potential recession that may turn into a depression, and the problem of energy crises because of a war on the fringes of Europe that have been in play for over a year.
