Imran Khan Out … For Now!
Imran Khan was ousted as Pakistan’s prime minister late last night after a vote of no confidence was upheld. In Pakistan’s 75-year history of independence, there has never been a prime minister who has served his entire term. This is a damning indictment of a supposedly parliamentary democracy emerging from colonialism but unable to establish itself as strong and stable after many years of post-war liberation.
The causes of this ailment are frequently centred on military power, which, ironically, is why Imran Khan was elected prime minister in the first place. In essence, his party lacked sufficient numbers. A coalition had to be formed, but only with the military’s support. The new likely prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif, will have a difficult time maintaining democratic order before new elections, and there is every chance that Imran Khan will return stronger and thus have an even more resolute mandate next year than he would have by holding on to power by any means necessary right now.
The World Bank and the IMF recently gave Pakistan a bailout of 1.5 billion USD to help the economy recover from crippling levels of inflation. Under Imran Khan, the country has seen record levels of foreign reserves and a significant increase in tax reserves, which has never happened before. Inflation is more related to recovering from a global economic shock in the form of a pandemic, and this global inflation will subside by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the supply chain is under severe strain all over the world. Inflation is wreaking havoc almost everywhere in the world.
There are numerous issues throughout South Asia. Bangladesh, like India, is a dictatorship run by uneducated Islamophobes. None of what was India prior to partition is in any kind of sane political condition. One could argue that this is a legacy of colonialism and that 75 years is simply not long enough to bring Pakistan, India, and, later, Bangladesh up to speed, but this is overly simplistic. Other countries resisting colonialism have suffered from problems of political, economic, social, and cultural reorganization, particularly in North Africa and across vast swaths of the Middle East. There is also the fact that the West continues to dominate global economic and cultural models, where power and authority in relation to the rest of the world have remained unchallenged since the end of WWII, though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in recent months may suggest that the Cold War is still being played out. The reality of the West’s dominance is related in part to the Eastern world’s lack of self-confidence combined with its inferiority complex, which was a residual effect of colonial expansion, which was presented as a white man’s burden that legitimised exploitative practices against people of non-Christian origin. Historical issues persist in an unbalanced world, and it is within this context that Pakistan finds itself embroiled once more.
Imran Khan was able to instigate a number of significant developments in 2018, including educational reform, providing investment opportunities for low-income families, rapidly increasing tax and foreign reserves, demonstrating independence in the region and around the world, engaging directly with nations such as China and Russia without fear of retaliation from the US, and, as recently as last month, playing a significant role in the UN instigating an international conference. Because Saudi Arabia has also been imported to support the coffers of the Pakistani state in recent years, Saudi Arabia has prevented Pakistan from getting closer to Malaysia and Turkey to form a kind of economic pact. As a result, Imran Khan has remained relatively silent on the war in Yemen and the genocide against Uighurs. Khan played all sides until they played him.
Imran Khan will have to think carefully about his next steps. He could be down, but I doubt he’s out. He has a few months to reorganise himself and his party and potentially return stronger than ever. This is what I would think if I were in his shoes.
